![]() Will watch the updating HRRR and other models to see if this trend catches on. A decent amount of elevated CAPE and deep layer bulk shear is there, so it may have some hail potential. The southerly low level jet would help feed this activity, with it being elevated. Several CAMs are suggesting showers and storms may develop later Wednesday afternoon and evening in far west central Wisconsin and shift to the southeast overnight into early Thursday morning. Models and CAMs have some weakening showers moving toward the western counties during this time, but dry air may win out and dissipate any showers. North winds should gradually weaken this afternoon and shift to the east tonight and southeast on Wednesday, as the high shifts to the east of the area.Ī 500 mb vorticity maximum should push east into the area into Wednesday morning. The smoke may limit solar radiation and temperatures this afternoon as well, so may have to reduce highs a bit. Per the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources, the Air Quality Advisory remains in effect until noon CDT Thursday for all of Wisconsin. Smoke should still linger into Thursday morning, though it should not be quite as concentrated and reducing visibility as it is today. This more concentrated smoke is likely to push back northward into western portions of the area, and Wisconsin, later tonight into Wednesday, per HRRR and RAP Smoke models for near-surface smoke. The more concentrated smoke, with 1 to 4 mile visibility restrictions, will continue to affect the area this afternoon, before gradually trying to shift to the south of the area tonight. Since hail can cause the rainfall estimates to be higher than what is actually occurring, steps are taken to prevent these high dBZ values from being converted to rainfall.Area Forecast Discussion.UPDATED National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1049 AM CDT Tue Jun 27 2023 Hail is a good reflector of energy and will return very high dBZ values. These values are estimates of the rainfall per hour, updated each volume scan, with rainfall accumulated over time. Depending on the type of weather occurring and the area of the U.S., forecasters use a set of rainrates which are associated to the dBZ values. The higher the dBZ, the stronger the rainrate. Typically, light rain is occurring when the dBZ value reaches 20. The scale of dBZ values is also related to the intensity of rainfall. The value of the dBZ depends upon the mode the radar is in at the time the image was created. ![]() Notice the color on each scale remains the same in both operational modes, only the values change. The other scale (near left) represents dBZ values when the radar is in precipitation mode (dBZ values from 5 to 75). One scale (far left) represents dBZ values when the radar is in clear air mode (dBZ values from -28 to +28). Each reflectivity image you see includes one of two color scales. The dBZ values increase as the strength of the signal returned to the radar increases. ![]() So, a more convenient number for calculations and comparison, a decibel (or logarithmic) scale (dBZ), is used. Reflectivity (designated by the letter Z) covers a wide range of signals (from very weak to very strong). "Reflectivity" is the amount of transmitted power returned to the radar receiver. The colors are the different echo intensities (reflectivity) measured in dBZ (decibels of Z) during each elevation scan.
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